Türkiye’s Climate Risks for 2050: Growing Pressure from Water Stress, Extreme Heat and Infrastructure Exposure

According to the AXA Türkiye Climate Report 2026, approximately 65 million people in Türkiye could face high or very high water stress by 2050, while 23 million could be exposed to heat stress. The report highlights the need for climate adaptation investment across agriculture, industry, energy systems and transport infrastructure.

Prepared by AXA Climate and AXA Türkiye, the AXA Türkiye Climate Report 2026 assesses the risks that climate change could create across the country. Drawing on projections from seven global climate models and local data, the study examines the potential effects of water scarcity, extreme heat, wildfires, flooding and landslides on society, the economy and critical sectors.

Published as Türkiye prepares to host COP31 in Antalya in November, the report was launched during Insurance Week, with the participation of AXA Türkiye CEO Yavuz Ölken and narration by Yekta Kopan.

Water Stress Could Affect Production and Energy Systems

According to the report, areas home to approximately 65 million people could face high or very high water stress by 2050. This figure corresponds to around 74% of Türkiye’s current population. Approximately 66% of the country’s land area could also experience significant water scarcity.

Rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns and growing water demand could intensify pressure on water resources. These developments have implications for urban drinking water supplies, agricultural irrigation, industrial operations and energy production.

The findings underline the growing importance of water management in production and investment planning. Efficient water use and the integration of climate risks into investment decisions are becoming increasingly relevant to business continuity.

Extreme Heat Could Change Energy Demand and Working Conditions

The report projects that average temperatures across Türkiye could rise by approximately 4°C. A quarter of the country could experience at least five days each year with temperatures exceeding 40°C.

Under these conditions, around 23 million people could be affected by heat stress, including approximately 11 million living in major cities.

Alongside its health effects, extreme heat could increase cooling demand and place additional pressure on energy systems. Rising temperatures could also affect working conditions and labour productivity, particularly for outdoor workers.

Interconnected Risks Highlight the Need for Resilient Infrastructure

The study estimates that approximately 10 million people could face high wildfire risk by 2050, while 14 million could be exposed to high or very high landslide risk. Around 4.5 million people could live in flood-prone areas, and approximately half of the population could experience more frequent heavy rainfall.

When these hazards occur together, their effects can extend beyond individual regions or sectors. Damage to transport infrastructure caused by heavy rainfall could disrupt supply chains. Prolonged hot and dry periods could increase both wildfire risk and pressure on water resources.

The report therefore stresses the importance of assessing climate risks together when planning cities, infrastructure investment and economic activities.

More Than Half of Agricultural Areas Could Face Very High Water Stress

The report notes that Türkiye’s exports of fruit and nuts exceeded $6 billion in 2025, while drawing attention to the climate risks facing agricultural production.

More than half of the country’s agricultural areas could experience very high water stress by 2050. Crops such as grapes, olives, citrus fruit, pistachios, figs and apricots could be affected by declining water availability and extreme heat.

Maximum temperatures approaching 50°C in parts of southeastern Anatolia would make it increasingly important to address irrigation management, production planning and food security together.

Heat and Wildfire Risks in Antalya; Flooding and Landslides in Istanbul

The regional assessments identify different risks for Antalya and Istanbul. By 2050, Antalya could experience more than 30 additional days each year with temperatures above 40°C. Rising temperatures and longer dry periods are also expected to increase wildfire risk in the surrounding areas.

In Istanbul, the concentration of people, economic activity and critical infrastructure could amplify the consequences of climate-related events. According to the report, approximately 322,000 people could live in areas exposed to flood risk by 2050, while 1.5 million could live in areas facing high landslide risk. Transport corridors and critical infrastructure assets could also be affected.

Loss Prevention Becomes More Important for Insurance

AXA Türkiye CEO Yavuz Ölken said the report demonstrates how climate risks vary across regions and how they could affect economic activity. He emphasised that climate change is already having economic, social and insurance-related consequences.

Ölken stated that the role of insurance extends beyond covering losses, highlighting the need to develop data-based forecasts, prevent damage and strengthen society’s capacity to adapt to changing conditions.

The report identifies more detailed risk maps, early warning systems, resilient infrastructure and improved water management as key areas for adaptation. Integrating climate projections into urban planning and investment decisions is also highlighted as an important step towards reducing future losses.

Read the full AXA Türkiye Climate Report 2026.